The positive trend seen in apparent steel consumption throughout 2021 came to an end in the second quarter of 2022, due to the impact of ongoing disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine, poor demand outlook and severe rises in energy prices and production costs. All these downside factors are expected to weigh even more in the second half of 2022 up to the second quarter of 2023 included, as a result of the prolonged effects of the war in

Ukraine. In the second quarter of 2022, apparent steel consumption fell (-4.8%, after an increase of +6.1%, in the first quarter), totalling a volume of 38.6 million tonnes.

In 2022, apparent steel consumption is expected to see its third annual recession over the last four years (revised downwards to -3.5% from -1.7%), as a result of quarterly drops forecasted also for the third and fourth quarters of 2022. Apparent steel consumption is set to decrease also in 2023, albeit at a lower rate (-1.9%), as demand from steel-using sectors is expected to remain severely subdued, at least until the second quarter of 2023.

These developments are conditional on the evolution of energy prices and the Russia-Ukraine war – which are unforeseeable at the time of writing – and its impact on global supply chains.